Older Voters May Be Swing Factor in Key Senate Races

2014 Campaign ButtonOlder voters continue to lean Republican in this year’s Senate races, a new survey shows, but there have been significant shifts in seven battleground states from a comparable survey by the same organizations nearly two months ago. Overall, Republicans are on the cusp of gaining the six seats they need to take control of the Senate in the Nov. 4 election, shows the survey, conducted by YouGov of Palo Alto, Calif., for the New York Times/CBS News Battleground Tracker.

Alaska. Among likely voters ages 65 and older, Republican Dan Sullivan stretched his lead from 8 points to 30 points (now 63 percent to 33 percent). Sullivan’s lead among likely voters ages 45 to 64 narrowed from 18 points to 13 points. Overall, Sullivan leads Democratic Sen. Mark Begich among likely voters 42 percent to 41 percent.

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Arkansas. Republican Rep. Tom Cotton doubled his 10-point margin over Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor¬†among likely voters 65 and older (now 52 percent to 32 percent) and retained roughly a 10-point lead among those 45 to 64. Cotton’s overall lead doubled from 3 to 6 points (43 percent to 37 percent).

North Carolina. Republican Thom Tillis’ lead over Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan among likely voters 65 and older narrowed from 26 points to 15 points (now 51 percent to 36 percent). Among those 45 to 64, Hagan’s 2-point deficit shifted to a 7-point lead (43 to 36 percent). Overall, Hagan has moved from a 2-point deficit to a 6-point lead.

Colorado. Republican Rep. Cory Gardner’s 22-point lead among the oldest voters and 6-point lead among those 45 to 64 are roughly comparable to his earlier leads over Democratic Sen. Mark Udall. Udall leads overall 44 percent to 43 percent.

Iowa. Republican Joni Ernst continued to have a relatively narrow lead over Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley among the older groups: 47 percent to 39 percent among 65-plus voters, and 42 percent to 36 percent among those ages 45 to 64. The candidates are in a dead heat overall.

Virginia. Democratic Sen. Mark Warner continued to run 9 points behind Republican challenger Ed Gillespie among 65-plus voters, though Warner retains a lead overall of 46 percent to 37 percent.

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Louisiana. Neither leading candidate is expected to reach the 50 percent threshold needed to avert a Dec. 6 runoff election. Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy leads Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu 42 percent to 25 percent among respondents 65-plus, and the two candidates are in a dead heat at 34 percent among those 45 to 64. In the projected runoff, Cassidy’s lead among all voters is 46 percent to 42 percent.

The latest results, released on Oct. 26, were based on more than 100,000 online interviews conducted in all 50 states from Oct. 12 through Oct. 19.

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8 comments
InsertCleverNameHere
InsertCleverNameHere 5pts

Get out there and vote.  Don't allow the Republicans to take over and steal your hard-earned benefits so their rich cronies can get richer.

2Papa
2Papa 5pts

OK folks, let's all be sure to get to the polls and vote so that we can make a difference.

evandkenwood
evandkenwood 5pts

ELECTION TIME IN MARYLAND TIME TO CLEAN HOUSE WIFE AND SELF DUE TO COMPLETE DIS REGARD TO MANY WANTS NOT SATISFIED BY EITHER PARTY INTHIS STATE OR COUNTRY HAVE AFTER A FULLLIFE TIME OF SUPPORTING ONLY DEMOCRATS HAVE BECOME INDEPENDENT WE AFTER OMALLEY ADMINISTRATION FOCUS ON WHAT IS THE NEEDS OF SENIORS SINCE NEITHER PARTY HAS DONE SO WE ARE NOW AND WILL BE FOR OUR REST OF OUR VOTING LIVES VOTE INDEPENDENT NO MORE B.S. NO MORE UNKEPT PROMISES    OH YES WE HAVE VOTED ALREADY  EARLY HOPE THE DEMOCRATS  AS WELL AS OTHER PARTY WILL MISS  US  WE ALSO HOPE THAT ALL SENIORS AS WELL AS OR FRIENDS WILL VOTE QUITE FREEOF ANY PARTY AND VOTE FOR WHAT CONCERNS THEM    AGAIN VOTE ONLY FOR WHAT WILL ADVANCE  THE SENIORS WAY OF LIFE REMEMBER WE OVER ALETIME HAVE GIVEN TO THIS COUNTRY AND STATE NOW WE ARE ENTITLED TO RECEIVE ALL THAT WE WORKED FOR     AGAIN  SENIORS PLEASE  VOTE YOUR MIND WITHOUT OUTSIDE INFLUENCE

myexper
myexper 5pts

What older voters need to be aware of is the fact that Republicans will eliminate their Medicare. The elimination of our traditional Medicare is contained within the Ryan Republican Budget, which Republicans have professed to be their plan for America. The Republican controlled House has passed this budget several times already but the Democrat majority Senate has voted it down each time. But, if the Republicans also control the Senate, this budget will pass and our traditional Medicare will be gone.

In addition, Republicans will implement their plan to use the Chained CPI to determine SS and Disabled veteran benefits COLA, cutting COLA for these same older voters. And earned Social Security benefits will be further cut when Republicans initiate their plan to means test your benefits, slashing benefits for seniors who have pensions or saved up for retirement.

aglalia
aglalia 5pts

@myexper I don't know where you are getting your information, but Republicans are the ONLY ones SUPPORTING America's CONSTITUTION and making every effort to  ENFORCE  it.  A Social Security Issue BEGAN a long time ago - WHEN the LOCK BOX was TAMPERED with.  IF anything - EVERY  PENNY  that has been removed and 'EAR-MARKED' for another USE - should be RE-IMBURSED  BACK  INTO  THE  SOCIAL  SECURITY  FUNDS.  DO  NOT  BLAME  REPUBLICANS; they are making every effort to OFFER  AMERICAN's  SENIORS  BETTER  OPTIONS.  EVERY DAY AMERICAN  CITIZENS  ARE  BEING ROBBED  BY  'obama' and it needs to STOP !  obama continues to ABUSE his authority against RIGHTS of ALL  AMERICANS, while make EXCUSES for PERMITTING  ILLEGAL  IMMIGRANTS  TO  CROSS  OUR  BORDERS - THEN PULL MONEY  FROM  SOCIAL  SECURITY  FUNDS  TO  PAY  FOR 'NON-CITIZENS'  NEEDS.   IT  MUST  STOP  AND  REPUBLICANS  ARE  THE  ONES  TO  DO  IT !!!!!!!

InsertCleverNameHere
InsertCleverNameHere 5pts

@aglalia @myexper  I don't know where you are getting your information, but overuse of ALL CAPS does not make your "facts" right.  It only emphasizes your foolishness.

myexper
myexper 5pts

@aglalia @myexper 

To aglalia: Regarding the "better options" you think Republicans are offering American seniors:

The Republican plan to "privatize Social Security" will dry up Social Security benefits for those already receiving Social Security and middle aged Americans who already paid far into the existing Social Security system, as no new money will be put into the existing (traditional) Social Security system with Republican privatization.

Social Security funds were not "robbed" by Obama. Both Republican and Democratic administrations have borrowed from SS excess funds over several decades. But Tea Party Republicans want to cut your current SS benefits rather than start to pay back this borrowed SS money to maintain your current earned benefits,

I vehemently disagree with the Republican plan you support. Seniors have paid into Social Security all their working lives and should be able to receive ALL their earned benefits. Social Security should not be tied into the national deficit as Republicans plan to do, as social Security had nothing to do with the deficit.

myexper
myexper 5pts

@aglalia @myexper 

I am getting my information from the Ryan Republican Budget itself, as well as the Center for Medicare Rights.

The Ryan Republican Budget was passed by the Republican controlled House several times already. Fortunately, this despicable budget was voted down by the Democrat majority Senate each time.

Over the last several years, Republicans have been attempting to implement their Chained CPI to lower COLA for Social Security and Disabled veterans benefits. AARP and several national publications have covered this plan.

And during their government shutdown last year, Republicans also requested that means testing of Social Security benefits be included in their demands to end their government shutdown.